Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN 8 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Florida that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $10 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with a total of $400k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $100k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Cortney Casey – $8,800

I like Casey in this fight, but I think she is one of the few fighters with a fight floor. She also scores well in her wins and she is an aggressive fighter, so I could see her getting 10x or more in a decision win here and if she loses she can still score 40+ which isn’t terrible for cash games. Usually the main event stack is my favorite cash game play but with these two Heavyweights I don’t see it being a high scoring match and I would rather shoot for safety in my cash lineup.

GPP play of the week – Don’Tale Mayes vs Rodrigo Nascimento fight

This is a fight that I think we have to target in GPPs because of the -300 FDGTD line. I don’t want to click on either one of these guys in a lineup because I don’t trust either, but this is one we need exposure to both sides of and it is going to be in most lineups I create. I will say my preferred play is Nascimento just because he is cheaper, but I won’t be taking any big stands on this fight and I would guess my exposure is close to even. This is not a cash game fight at all so avoid it there but load up in GPPs and if you do have a strong lean on either side then you should take more of a stand on that guy. Either way, you don’t want this fight to start with 100+ points to open the night and not have exposure to either side.

Underdog play of the week – Alistair Overeem – $7,500

Overeem is my favorite underdog play this week. I think Overeem has more ways to win this fight and pay off his salary with a win, where we are purely relying on a knock down and a knockout for Harris to win and score well. Overeem should be the one landing more shots at a higher accuracy and if this fight goes to the mat it will be Overeem taking it there. At $7.5k, I think any win from Overeem could put him on the optimal lineup and I want to be overweight to the field with my personal exposure.

Fade of the week – Krzysztof Jotko $8,600

I think this fight will be a slow-paced striking battle and the only way either guy scores highly is if they get a finish. Jotko is my least favorite, favorite, on the slate and I would much rather pay for the other fighters in his range at that price tag. I don’t care for Anders in this fight either, but he is cheaper and has a better ITD line at +270 while Jotko sits at +415, so he would be the better play of the two after taking into account their different salaries. That is why Jotko is my fade of the week.


This post is courtesy of BigMarley3

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Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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