Big Marley’s UFC 249 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Florida that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in and $200k goes to 1st place with a total of $1,000,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $200k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Dominick Cruz – $7,400

Cruz is my cash game play of the week because he carries one of the higher floors on the slate. He is hard to finish, and he strikes at a high pace and is hard to hit, so I could see him putting up 40-50 or more in a loss. I am totally fine with that in my cash lineup. With 5 rounds to work with I think his floor makes him a cash lock for me and he is a live dog in this matchup as well. He has never scored less than 100 DK points in a win, so he carries a nice ceiling as well, but his price tag allows us to pay up for other favorites we want in our lineup.

GPP play of the week – Vicente Luque $9,000

Luque will be a core GPP play for me this week and I like him in all formats. He has scored over 100 DK points in 7 of his fights and one of those fights was against Price where he scored 111 with his 2nd round submission. I think he is better everywhere except power and he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. The only real worry with him is being knocked out but I don’t see this fight going to decision so if he wins I think he scores well and GPPs are all about boom or bust fighters.

Underdog play of the week – Yorgan de Castro – $7,600

I like De Castro here because he is cheap, and he has 1st round KO potential. I also think Hardy will be fairly popular this week so if you can get that KO from Castro then not only do you get a big score at lower ownership, but you knock out 30-40% of the field who were on the other side as well. I only like this move for GPPs, but I will be sure to get some Castro in my lineups and ideally, I will be overweight to the field.

Fade of the week – Carla Esparza $8,400

Carla is my fade of the week because I just don’t want any investment to this fight on DraftKings. I don’t think she has the style to score highly in a win and this line has a -450 Fight Goes To Decision line. She does have the edge in wrestling here, but I don’t see her racking up more than 5 takedowns in this fight and if she gets them I doubt she gets many advance points and I’d be surprised to see her get a submission.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 119-88 for +251.76u (+$25,176) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


This post is courtesy of BigMarley3

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Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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