Big Marley’s UFC 247 Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV with two title fights in Houston. DraftKings has some great contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with a total of $300,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $100k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups, 10-20, in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Jon Jones – $9,400
You could put Shevchenko here as well because she is as safe of a win as in gets on this card, but I like Jones to get the job done and I think we can project him for a higher score and a higher ceiling here. In GPPs he will be the highest owned fighter on the card so if you want to get away from him you do it in those big tournaments. But Jones is the better fighter everywhere in this fight and the greatest fighter of all time. I think he is a lock in cash games and I won’t be stacking at all this card.
GPP play of the week – Austin Lingo/Youssef Zalal fight
I like both sides of this fight, but more so the Lingo side. I think he is more likely to win ITD and I like the line that FDGTD at -170. Zalal could get a finish himself so I like him for cheap as well, but just a guy I will throw into a couple lineups. Lingo is a guy that could get overlooked a bit here and I will likely try to be a bit overweight to the field. I don’t love this fight for cash games, but I am not against Lingo there either.
Underdog play of the week – Mario Bautista – $7,600
Bautista is one of my favorite underdogs on the card and my preferred DK option in this fight. I do think Bautista will be chalky this week, but I like the value we are getting at his price tag. He has the volume to pay this salary off in a win and I think he is very live for the win. I like him a lot for cash games but the ownership he might carry in GPPs worries me a bit. I likely will be in line with the field or overweight here, but this is by no means a must have fight or fighter.
Fade of the week – Andre Ewell $8,400
Ewell will be one fighter I have zero lineups with this weekend. I would rather target all the other fighters around his price range and I don’t see him scoring well in this fight even if he does win. At $8.4k, I am looking for at least 84 points from him and he has never had that in a UFC win and he doesn’t have the volume to get there unless he gets a finish. He might get the win here but if he scores 60 DK points that won’t do us any good and that is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 110-81 for +264.28u (+$26,428) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)