Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN 3 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Minnesota. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. There are only 14 more seats remaining so there won’t be much more time to qualify if you are trying to. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Jared Gordon – $9,200

I like Gordon to get the win this weekend and he will be a cash game play of mine personally. There are better fights to target if we are looking for 1st round knockouts but I will be focusing more on those in GPPs. I like the floor and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is why he is the cash play of the week. I don’t think Moret has the power to really test the chin of Gordon’s which has seemed to be his biggest weakness lately. With the pace Gordon sets I think he has 100+ upside in a decision win and I don’t see him getting finished here so he should have a solid floor. I think his floor in a win is probably 80+ as well which is totally fine for cash games. This is a tricky weak, but this is my personal favorite cash game spot of the week.

GPP play of the week – Francis Ngannou – $8,800

I had to go with Ngannou here. If he wins it is most likely a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 on the betting line. If he gets that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and at his $8.8k salary that will put him on the $25k lineup. He will be very chalky this week though so be sure to load up on him if you are multi-entering if you want to get leverage over the field. I do think JDS is a live underdog here as well, so I will be targeting both sides of this fight, but I do see 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here and that can beat a lot of the fighters priced above him.

Underdog play of the week – Junior Albini – $8,000

I really don’t love this card this week because I am not picking any real underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only guy who would be considered an underdog that I do believe will win and I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we are getting him for $200 less than Greene but I wouldn’t be surprised if Albini was the favorite on the betting line going into the fights. With these guys being Heavyweights, it doesn’t take much to get a knockout and if Albini can do that at $8k he can give me a run at the optimal lineup.

Fade of the week – Emily Whitmire $8,500

I faded Whitmire in her previous fight as well and she burned me by scoring a 1st round submission. I am going back to the fade here though and hoping the same doesn’t happen. On a card where I am picking basically every favorite, I would rather pick the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her $8.5k price tag. I am not sure that going to the ground is in her best interest in this fight and if she stays standing I don’t see her paying off value in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I would be taking some shots on Whitmire, but I will likely only make ~20 and she won’t make my player pool with that many lineups.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 83-52 for +251.89u (+$25,421) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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