BigMarley3’s UFC on ESPN+ 11 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Sweden. It was a 13-fight card, but we just had Oezdemir/Latifi fall off, so be sure they are not in your lineups. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Alexander Gustafsson – $9,300
Gus is my most confident pick of the card this week and he is also the biggest betting favorite on the card. I think we can stack this main event in cash games and use both Gus and Anthony Smith, but I am not sure if I will do that or not. I will for sure have Gustafsson in my cash lineup though and he is who I will be starting that lineup with. With 5-rounds to work with I think he has the highest ceiling on the card and I think he gets a finish in this fight. Possibly with multiple takedowns. He will be extremely popular in GPPs so if you want to get away from him I think the tournaments are the spots for that. I will be locking him into my cash lineup though personally.

GPP play of the week – Tonya Evinger – $8,600

On DraftKings, I like Evinger in her fight and I have zero interest in Lansberg. Evinger’s best path to victory is punishing Lansberg on the ground and that scores highly if she can do that. I also think she could get a finish. I think she is in play in all formats and I do think she has 100+ upside here and that is why she is my GPP play of the week. There are not many UFC matchups I would say that for with Evinger at this point in her career, but this one seems perfect for her. I think she dominates this fight and ends it with ground in pound in round 1 or 2. If that is the case, she should score well and possibly win somebody $25k.

Underdog play of the week – Devin Clark – $7,500

I feel forced to play Devin Clark this week because he is only $7.5k but he is the current betting favorite. I love that kind of value on DraftKings and that is what is forcing me to roster him. We have to include “underdogs” in our DK lineups and if we can really get a favorite, or even a roster with 6 favorites, that helps our odds of hitting all 6 fights and hopefully taking down a GPP. Clark should be popular this week as well because of this value so I think he is in play as a cash game block and if you want, but in GPPs you’ll need to have him in more than ~33% of your lineups to get any leverage on him over the field.

Fade of the week – Duda Santana $8,600

Duda Santana is an easy fade for me this week. She is $8.6k but she is the underdog on the betting line. She is also +365 to win ITD. If I am paying that price on DK I want higher finishing upside or somebody who will be going for a lot of takedowns. I don’t see her having much of a ceiling in this fight even if she does win so I don’t see her being on the $25k lineup. That is why I will be full fading Santana this week. If I was making 150 lineups then I would include her in the mix, but I would need 50 lineups before I even considered using her.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 79-48 for +256.49u (+$25,649) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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