If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week and I can’t wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – STACK – Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the first thing I did when salaries were released. I put both of these fighters in my cash lineup and I started building from there. I expect this to be one of the greatest fights of all time and I think we get ~200 total DK points from this fight, plus the guaranteed win. I am ok with taking the loss when I can guarantee myself over 100 points with the stack, but I think 150 is a safe projection for this fight and if we can lock up 3 other wins we should win the majority of our cash games. As I always say, we don’t need 6 wins for cash games so there is really no need to chase it. Just lock in a safe lineup that you think will score over 400 total points and you should win more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP play of the week – Nikita Krylov – $8,200
Krylov is my GPP play of the week because he is the definition of boom or bust. He either loses or scores more than 100 DK points. That is what we want in GPPs. This isn’t a confident pick in him winning it is just a shot at his ceiling which is what we look for in the big GPPs where we are trying to win the top $30k prize. Krylov has finished all 24 of his wins and he has only seen the 3rd round once in his career. This is a great fight to target on both sides, but I am taking Krylov to get the win and I will have a good amount of exposure to him this weekend.
Underdog play of the week – Dustin Poirier – $7,100
I had to put Poirier here. I love his floor and I think he is a live underdog. However, IF he wins, he will 100% end up on the 1st place lineup at his $7.1k price-tag. He is going to score over 100 DK points if he can get a victory here and that is what we are chasing in GPPs. Even if you think Max is going to dominate Poirier I think you should have at least 1 hedge lineup using Poirier, and this is an all-in fight for me. Every lineup I build will start with Dustin or Max and I will go on from there. Load up on this fight and be sure to get some Poirier exposure.
Fade of the week – Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was tough to pick a fade of the week this week because I think you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a favorite though and I think the favorite with one of the lower ceilings is Salmon. I am picking him to win but he won’t be going for any takedowns and if he doesn’t get a finish he probably doesn’t pay off his $8.6k price tag. I want at least 10x (86-points) if I am rostering someone and I don’t see him getting that unless he gets a knockout. Taha is tough so I don’t see the knockout happening. I think Salmon does get a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s and that won’t win us the big $30k. That is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 66-41 for +220.23u (+$22,023) since May 19th on Premium Plays)