Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+ 4 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a couple weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Yana Kunitskaya – $8,900

There really are no cash game locks this week for me but I went with Yana because I fully expect this fight to go all 3 rounds so I like the floor she brings to the table. I also think she wins the fight and I think she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t know how high her ceiling is but in cash games it doesn’t really matter too much since we don’t need to hit 1st place in a double-up. I would expect about 10x from Yana in a decision win and I will take that all day in my cash games.

GPP play of the week – Louis Smolka – $8,300

Smolka fights tend to score highly because there are a lot of scrambles and all the grappling advances really add up. I expect this to be a very fun fight, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always looking for a minimum of 10x from my fighters and at $8.3k I would be shocked if Smolka didn’t get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point loss to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and if he wins I would expect near 100 DK points.

Underdog play of the week – Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos – $8,000

For a fight that I expect to stay standing, I have quite a bit of interest in this fight. I think it will be an action-packed fight and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so I think a KO from either guy would have a good chance to put them on the optimal lineup. I like it even more because I am picking the underdog to get the knockout and I expect Millender to be the higher owned fighter. I will have this fight in more than half my lineups, but I will probably have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for cash since he is an underdog and I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I will have a good amount of exposure to dos Santos.

Fade of the week – Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)

At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at that salary and I don’t see that happening. If he wins a clear 30-27 decision, then he probably scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that won’t win anybody a GPP. I don’t think he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does go for takedowns then I don’t see him submitting Moraes. So, it has to be a KO from him to pay off that salary and I am not willing to take that risk with my money. That is why he is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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