Big Marley’s UFC 234 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests a bit and I like the new selection of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

Cash Game play of the week – Shane Young ($9,100)

I am really not loving this slate for cash games, and I was just going to pick the main event stack for my cash game play of the week. However, I can see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a great cash game play. I don’t know how high of a ceiling he has because I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I think he has a high floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he has 100-point upside in a decision, and I also think he could finish this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that is why he is my cash game play of the week instead of my GPP play.

GPP play of the week – Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)

I think the only way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara has no ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I think Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is why he is my GPP play of the week and not my cash game play of the week. In cash, I want to lock in higher floors and that is not what we have here. I like this more for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he has, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a profit if he lost a decision at that price and still scored 30-40 points, we would just need to hit on our other spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside since he will be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him getting multiple takedowns as well as a submission. I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who could be more popular.

Underdog play of the week – Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)

I am actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to stay standing for as long as it lasts. I personally see this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that is the case, then I think Gastelum has the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to work with and he will land a fair amount of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not put him on the $30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That is why he is my underdog play of the week.

Fade of the week – Sam Alvey ($7,900)

I have to stay on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have picked him as my fade every time he has fought so I am going to roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score highly is by getting a knockout win. He does not strike at a high enough pace to score highly in a decision and he won’t be going for any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter when I roster them and with his $7.9k price tag, that means I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 54-34 for +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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