Derrick Lewis Wins By TKO (+455)
This is a great value play as Lewis’ prime way to win here is by a knockout finish. He can certainly do that as he has fight changing power in both of his hands and can land a big punch on Gane at any time throughout the fight. Whether he will be able to do that successfully remains to be seen on Saturday in the main event but he certainly can. I expect Gane to gauge the distance and try to pick apart Lewis to a safe decision victory here. Using kicks to both Lewis’ legs and body coupled with jabs while he looks to avoid the returning power from the Blast Beast. While I think the slightly more likely outcome is Gane to win by a decision here I cannot say it confidently. This is also in Lewis’ hometown of Houston, Texas with a fully capacity crowd so the extra energy in the arena fueling Lewis should provide extra motivation for him. We have seen some significant holes in the striking defense of Gane and that is why I worry of him actually getting hurt. We’ve seen Lewis make significant comebacks to win big fights in the past and this position is no different than previous times for him. Again, I still lean Gane as he is the better technical striker with more variety but I cannot overlook the knockout power, heart, and toughness from Derrick Lewis. Strictly a value play here and a great one too in my opinion.
Jose Aldo Wins By Decision (+175)
Aldo is the significantly better striker and all-around fighter here against Munhoz. And while is getting up there in age Aldo is still a very elite fighter in all aspects of the fight game. His cardio has been questionable in the past but we have seen him push deep into late rounds in the past and luckily for him this is a three round fight. I expect Munhoz to pressure Aldo and try to keep him on his back foot but I think Aldo will get the better of the exchanges and implement excellent countering and strong leg kicks to hopefully fend off the pressure from Munhoz. We have seen Munhoz get eaten up by strikes from Edgar and Aldo is just on another level as far as striking goes, he should be able to win at least two if not all three of the rounds against Munhoz in a great stand up war.
Michael Chiesa Wins By Decision (+255)
With Chiesa settling himself back into the welterweight division which looks to be his new home for competing in MMA he has compiled a win streak of four wins so far. He looks to have gained strength and size by saving himself the extra fifteen pounds needed to cut to make it to lightweight and benefiting greatly from it. I can see Chiesa immediately pressing the action against Luque here and forcing clinch work against the cage and working towards double leg takedowns. I like Chiesa’s chances in doing so as he will have great top control if he is able to secure multiple takedowns throughout this bout. He does not want to engage in any sort of stand up striking affair with Luque as that never seems to work out for fighters facing Luque. Chiesa by decision has good enough value for me to take a shot here – he is a pressuring wrestler who knows what he needs to do to continue winning and possibly get a title shot in the future.
Rafael Fiziev Wins By TKO (+200)
Bobby Green has become a fighter who is too reluctant to sit back and relax way too much in fights now. It almost seems like he has taken a Nate Diaz approach in how he just does not fully engage in fighting to win fights. You find him way too often sitting back and even taunting which sometimes comes back to bite him. Fiziev is not one of those fighters you can overlook if you are trying to get back in the win column like Green is. This is a pretty simple fight to break down as Fiziev will pressure Green and punch him a ton. I think a decision is possible but I am banking on Fiziev’s power and pressure will make Green succumb to a finish.
Thanks for reading and best of luck!