Prop: Cody Garbrandt vs Rob Font To End Inside The Distance (-280)
I just about never give away chalk plays as my props but this one has value in it in my opinion. It should be much higher – probably (-400) instead of opening at (-260). This is one of those fights where it is extremely difficult seeing it go to decision given twenty-five minutes for them to work. Garbrandt and Font are perfect style matchups for each other to where the judges should not play a role in deciding the winner.
Garbrandt and Font are both offensive machines with power and wanting to be aggressive. What is great about the price of this prop is that both can be finished – more-so Garbrandt though due to his chin issues and getting very reckless on too many occasions when trying to finish a fight. His chin is very susceptible to not being able to take a clean shot as we’ve seen in fights against T.J. Dillashaw and Pedro Munhoz. The reckless portion of Garbrandt’s game saw him get knocked out against Munhoz after having Munhoz on the verge of being finished. Garbrandt was winding up on every shot with his chin up in the air throwing fast balls at Munhoz with every swing. Garbrandt was caught off a counter hook by Munhoz that put him out. He bounced back last June with a stellar knockout against Raphael Assuncao that sent Assuncao crashing to the floor. It was easily Garbrandt’s best finish. Do I think he could land a shot to hurt Font and finish him? Sure. That is definitely not out of the question as Garbrandt has quick, technical striking with big power behind his shots.
As for Rob Font, he has much better durability though as we have seen him take big, clean power shots and not be fazed one bit. Font’s fight with John Lineker many years ago was such a wild fight that saw Font losing a decision. He is in my opinion one of the more underrated fighters in this division but has built up a quiet, yet impressive winning streak against Sergio Pettis, Ricky Simon, and most recently his biggest win of his careers with a TKO finish over Marlon Moraes last December. He has strong jabs that he likes to sit on to set up his power shots and can definitely put anyone out if he has them hurt. Font is honestly just a dog that does not have any quit in him and once he smells blood he goes after the finish. That is what makes him a dangerous fight for anyone especially Garbrandt who can be caught.
If you are wanting my actual pick for this fight since it is very close on the Vegas odds then I would have to lean Rob Font (his TKO prop is around +160 so not bad). I think his power, durability, willingness to exchange in the pockets and absorb damage, and his aggressive fighting should help him get the win over Garbrandt. I think we will see some wild exchanges and that leaves plenty of opportunity for Garbrandt to be knocked out. I think this fight is just too tough to call for me to bet on Font but I do lean him. Garbrandt is the more technical striker so he could very well win this fight as well. Either way it should be an exciting main event this Saturday.
Thanks for reading and best of luck!