Three Not For Me: The Fights To Pass On for UFC Vegas 12

We’re on the heels of UFC 254 where we saw Khabib Nurmagomedov put on a great performance and go out on top. This week, we get a main event between Uriah Hall and Anderson Silva.

First time reading this piece? I go through 3 fights on the upcoming UFC card that you should avoid from a betting perspective and the reasoning why. As bettors, we’re constantly looking to find our betting opportunities but identifying those spots to stay away are just as important.

**NOTE: The perspective being given in this article is from where current odds sit at the time writing. Also, my analysis in regards to passing on these fights is from a STRAIGHT betting perspective.
Let’s jump into it!

Jason Witt (-140) vs Cole Williams (+120)

This matchup pits two fighters together who are seeking their first UFC wins after making their debuts on short-notice.

I’ve got very little intrigue on this fight from a general perspective but from an analysis standpoint, it’s kind of tough. Both guys come from traditional wrestling backgrounds but it seems that Witt is the better wrestler. Conversely, Williams seems like he’s more content to strike and will look to walk guys down. But with that, he leaves his hands down and isn’t very quick or athletic in doing so. I think we’ll see Witt realize some wrestling success here as he seems better technically, is the fresher fighter and appears to be in better shape. But at the same time, Witt seems to struggle with pressure and going backwards which is what Williams does bring to the table.

I feel the line is roughly correct as I put Witt at 60%. As touched on, if Witt has the wrestling success that I think he will, he’ll justify his price but if he doesn’t, Williams could be looking like value. For me, it would be a difficult proposition to back Williams at this point in his career though, coupled with limited amount of footage on him. Ultimately, I don’t think either fighter is UFC caliber and in that, you’re asking for variance in backing a side.

I’d stay away.

Dustin Jacoby (-345) vs Justin Ledet (+285)

Dustin Jacoby is seeking his first UFC win in his second stint with the promotion and Justin Ledet is looking to break a 3-fight losing skid.

The breakdown on this one is pretty elementary for me. You’ve got a pretty solid kickboxer in Jacoby versus a decent boxer in Ledet. In full transparency, I had relatively high hopes for Ledet as he looked solid at Heavyweight (having a solid speed advantage over opponents) but he’s dropped off a cliff since moving down where that speed advantage isn’t as evident. Ledet has been vocal in the past about how he doesn’t feel he needs to evolve his game which is categorically incorrect – especially at this division. Ultimately, with Jacoby’s background and more diverse skill-set, he should be able to get the job done here.

In terms of the line, I do think it’s a bit high on Jacoby but not enough value for me to take the plunge on Ledet. If he presented a bigger wrestling/grappling upside, that would be one thing but ultimately, I feel he’ll give Jacoby the kind of fight he wants. However, I can’t recommend laying this kind of chalk on Jacoby as he’s only had a handful of MMA fights in the last few years – so truly assessing where he’s at right now is somewhat difficult.

I’d sit back and take in Jacoby’s performance.

Uriah Hall (-230) vs Anderson Silva (+190)

The last fight in my ‘Three Not For Me’ this week will unfortunately be the Main Event. We have Uriah Hall looking to string together 3 wins for the first time since 2015 as he’s pitted against the aged vet in Anderson Silva.

I’ve got to call a spade a spade and say this is a pretty rough main event. Like if this was prime Anderson Silva vs prime Uriah Hall, the intrigue level would be much different but here we are in 2020. Both guys have been historically pretty low-volume and fall under the “tactician” category for me. With that, I see a lot of sitting and staring in this one as both guys will be waiting for the other to make a mistake. But, I think Hall will be able to land the more impactful shots and potentially find a KO in the latter rounds.

You can look at this fight from multiple betting perspective angles but here’s why I want no part. In regards to Hall, I don’t think I could lay this price on him straight against virtually any decent competition. Why? Because he doesn’t “win minutes”. He’s either losing until he’s not and finds that KO or he loses. Not to mention the fact that he’s been extremely vocal in regards to struggling with the mental part of the game – not the blueprint of a guy I’m looking to back straight. In regards to Silva, I don’t want to sound disrespectful but the guy is shell of himself. He’s not the same flashy guy he used to be. In that, he’s 1-7 in his last 8 because he’s not finding those finishes anymore. With that, backing Silva in this spot would be a complete dart throw.

Betting/picking aside, it would be nice to see “The Spider” go out on top though as he’s one of the greatest fighters to ever grace the Octagon.


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Written by Luke Lampe - Sparring with Reality Betting

Writer/Fight Connoisseur
Contributor @mmaoddsbreaker
UFC Betting Advice

Follow on Twitter: @SWR_Betting

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