UFC on ESPN 5 Prop Betting Selections

Antonina Shevchenko vs Lucie Pudilova

Shevchenko should be able to bounce back here after a rough loss to Modafferi in her last outing. Her grappling weaknesses showed to an extend in that fight, but I have much more confidence backing her here. Pudilova shouldn’t have much of any success getting Shevchenko on her back and if that’s the case it’ll be a long night for Pudilova. It’ll turn into a kickboxing match with Shevchenko having the clear, distinctive edge on the feet and with that I’ll have to take Shevchenko to pick up a decision win.

Prop: Antonina Shevchenko wins by decision (+110)

Mickey Gall vs Salim Touahri

This is pretty much a fade on Mickey Gall with this pick. He isn’t good at all outside of a wrestling game and top game with his BJJ skills. Gall is his best in round one but sometimes that still isn’t good enough. His gas tank goes from 100 to 0 almost instantly and I could see him getting finished here again. I wouldn’t be mad at a small stab on Touahri by TKO as just a nice fade on Mickey Gall.

Prop: Salim Touahri by TKO (+323)

Clay Guida vs Jim Miller

I think the weirdest part about this fight is that these two haven’t ever fought each other before despite being in the UFC for over a decade in the same weight class for quite some time. I think Miller has more ways to win here along with better striking and management of distance in the stand up. Guida doesn’t do much outside of small pitty-pat strikes here and there whilst bouncing around for majority of his fights. Miller should be able to fend off most takedowns and capitalize in the stand up with the power behind his hands and leg kicks to secure a nice decision win. Both men are so tough and durable in their own right that I’m not expecting a finish here.

Prop: Jim Miller wins by decision (+244)

Colby Covington vs Robbie Lawler

I’m sure 99.9% of the MMA community is strongly behind Robbie Lawler in this fight as they would any fight, but mainly because Covington has a lot of heat on him. However, none of that matters once the cage door closes. I have a hard time seeing Lawler winning this fight unless he gets a Masvidal-esque like knee on Askren in the opening first round. If he doesn’t get Covington out of there early it’ll be tough to truly get any offense off with Covington pressuring, taking him down, and beating him up. Covington is an elite athlete and has transitioned his wrestling into MMA incredibly well. I think Lawler’s wrestling defense is really good, but Covington is just a different kind of animal. His pace is nonstop, and he keeps throwing and attacking legs until a takedown is secured. We’ve seen his fights before, he really is a machine and his pace is unmatched. Of course, Lawler has the power to put any man out at any given time in a fight, but it’ll only get tougher dealing with Covington’s pressure and getting beat up. Covington could actually score a submission victory here in the later rounds after he has worn Lawler down. Lawler might be vulnerable to giving up his back (Lawler does have six submission losses, Covington with five submission wins) and allowing Covington the opportunity to attack a neck. Colby is talented enough on the ground so that is totally not out of the question for method of victory. I’ll have to take a stab on Colby Covington to tap Lawler out here.

Prop: Colby Covington wins by submission (+507)

(You can also take Covington by unanimous decision at [+185] as it’s more likely to happen rather than a submission)

Thanks for reading and best of luck!

Written by Chris White

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