UFC on ESPN+ 11 Prop Betting Selection

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I originally was going to pass on having any kind of action for this card but, after doing a little more digging I did come across a nice little prop that has pretty good value and is worth a shot.

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Smith

This weekend’s main event features two light heavyweights looking to get back on track after both are coming off one-sided beatdowns to the kingpin of their division, Jon Jones. Gustafsson is the more technically sound fighter between the two and should be able to use his boxing, range, and speed to handle business Saturday night against his less-skilled opponent in Anthony Smith. Smith has power and incredible durability going for him though, and Gustafsson isn’t exactly a guy who goes for the kill in his fights. He likes to simply outpoint and out strike his opponents. Gustafsson should have not much trouble with Smith as long as he avoids the power of Smith and doesn’t get drawn into an all-out war with technique thrown out the window. If he is able to sit back and pick apart Smith, then a decision win is his most likely path to victory in my opinion. I’m however, willing to take it a step forward with this prop and take Gustafsson to win by a unanimous decision (assuming the book you use offers that, if not just stick with decision) in the main event. The value differences between a decision win and a unanimous decision win is (+176) and (+250) respectively. If Gustafsson wins a decision I believe it’ll be by a unanimous. It is hard to see the rounds being competitive enough for the judges to be swayed.

Prop: Alexander Gustafsson wins by Unanimous Decision (+250)

Written by Chris White

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LFA 68 Opening Betting Odds

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Beyond The Odds: UFC Stockholm