Mike’s MMA Picks Betting Recap for UFC 279: Another victorious weekend!

As per usual, Mike’s MMA Picks slayed it again this past weekend for UFC 279, going 5-2 on his bets and nailing an add-on for a hefty +0.89 unit profit.

Mike adds more bets as the fights get closer, so his subscribers get more value due to line movement compared to single event package purchasers. He invests up to 20 hours of labor each week watching fights, doing the fighter research and finding a betting edge so you don’t have to.

Mike is up over 33 units this year and over 112 units lifetime.

For anyone interested in taking a shot on Mike’s bets, he currently has 1-month subscription available, which would cover any plays given out through September and October. You also can buy his single event packages from his premium bets page.

Here’s what his subscribers saw before fight night this past weekend:


Risking 0.5U on the Collier-Barnett fight doesn’t go the distance prop at -145.

Risking 1U on Heili Alateng at -165

Risking 1U on Tony Ferguson at -122

Risking 1.5U on the Chimaev-Holland fight doesn’t go the distance prop at -270.

Add-on 0.5U on the Chimaev-Holland fight doesn’t go the distance prop at -270.

Risking 1U Cutelaba-Walker UNDER 1.5 rounds at -125

Risking 1U Cutelaba-Walker UNDER 2.5 rounds at -250

Both Ion Cutelaba and Johnny Walker have proven to be extremely volatile fighters who will gun for the finish, win or lose. Walker has been brutally KO’d a number of times, and Cutelaba always brings his fight to opponents early, win or lose. It feels almost inevitable that this bout will end up in a car crash early. I’m on the under 1.5 rounds at -125 and under 2.5 rounds at -250.

Risking 1U on the Erosa-Dawodu fight doesn’t go the distance prop at +104

Hakeem Dawodu, 13-2-1, 31yo, takes on Julian Erosa, 27-9, 33yo, in a featherweight scrap. Erosa is a dog, willing to head into the fire vs any opponent. He absorbs tremendous punishment, and appears to live on the brink between victory and defeat in many bouts. Erosa has proven to possess a dangerous ground game and can slow cook his opponents. Dawodu is the more technical striker here, and he’ll have Erosa heading towards him all night long. Perhaps Dawodu will get the KO or Erosa will win via submission or TKO, as there is a discrepancy in skill set on the mat. I like this fight in front of a massive crowd not to go the distance at plus money.


The following plays also were made, but were canceled due to last minute fight changes on the card.

Cancelled plays due to fight changes

Risking 1.5U on the Chimaev to win via KO/TKO over Nate Diaz prop at +100.

Risking 0.6U on the Chimaev to win via submission over Nate Diaz prop at +260

Risking 2U on Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez at -190

This is a solid matchup for Kevin Holland, who takes on Daniel Rodriguez at a catchweight bout of 180lbs. Although Rodriguez has credentialed BJJ, he isn’t necessarily a threat in the wrestling department, is giving up 7 inches in reach, and is coming off of multiple hand surgeries & over a year lay-off. Rodriguez has sharp hands when he gets going, though Holland may match the output and has the better cardio. Although he’s made some bonehead decisions during fights earlier in his career, we’ve seen Kevin Holland turn a corner, and I am backing him at -190 or better odds. Holland is the younger fighter with many more tools at his disposal.

Written by Brian Hemminger


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