UFC Future Odds Analysis: Kennedy/Gracie, Munoz/Boetsch, Jones/Gustafsson, Velasquez/Dos Santos Jun 23, 2013

Cain Velasquez 2

MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas this week unveiled four new lines for future fights on 5Dimes Sportsbook. Two of the four new lines are from the upcoming UFC 162 card, while there’s one from each UFC 165 and UFC 166.

Here are the odds for the new lines and my analysis of each of them:

UFC 162: Tim Kennedy vs. Roger Gracie

  • Opening moneyline: Kennedy (-120)/Gracie (-120)
  • Current moneyline: Kenndedy (-120)/Gracie (-120)
  • Opening total: Over 2.5 (+125)/Under 2.5 (-165)
  • Current total: Over 2.5 (-110)/Under 2.5 (-130)

Analysis: The upcoming middleweight bout between Tim Kennedy and Roger Gracie is a tough one to call and it’s not surprising at all that the line opened as a Pick ‘em and that is has remained that way since. The way these two fighters matchup is interesting, as both fighters usually prefer to take their opponents to the ground. So it’s possible that the fight remains a standup battle if neither guy wants to test the other’s ground abilities. At first I was liking Kennedy, but after thinking about the fight more I like Gracie in this one, although I would have to get him at a plus number to play him. My thinking is Gracie is going to look to take Kennedy to the ground and prove that he’s the superior submission artist, and even though Kennedy has solid wrestling, I feel Gracie can use his size advantage to get the fight in to his wheelhouse and either get the submission or grind out a decision.

UFC 162: Mark Munoz vs. Tim Boetsch

  • Opening moneyline: Munoz (-120)/Boetsch (-120)
  • Current moneyline: Munoz (-160)/Boetsch (+120)
  • Opening total: Over 2.5 (+105)/Under 2.5 (-145)
  • Current total: Over 2.5 (-165)/Under 2.5 (+125)

Analysis: Another UFC 162 middleweight bout had its opening line released this week with Mark Munoz and Tim Boetsch opening at a Pick ‘em with both guys price at -120. Since the opener, the public has come in a little bit on Munoz and has raised the line to -160 in his favor, with the comeback on Boetsch currently sitting at +120. This is another close fight but at +120. I believe there is some value in Boetsch, as he should be able to keep this fight on the feet and with his standup, he’ll have the edge in both power and technique. It’s possible that Munoz uses his wrestling and controls this fight en route to a decision but he’s coming off a year-long layoff and seems like someone to fade right now.

UFC 165: Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson

  • Opening moneyline: Jones (-675)/Gustafsson (+425)
  • Current moneyline: Jones (-675)/Gustafsson (+425)
  • Opening total: Over 2.5 (-110)/Under 2.5 (-130)
  • Current total: Over 2.5 (+110)/Under 2.5 (-150)

Analysis: The opening line for the upcoming UFC 165 light heavyweight title matchup between the champ Jon Jones and the challenger Alexander Gustafsson was released this week with Jones at -675 and Gustafsson at +425. So far, the line has remained steady and I think the line is about right. This is Jones’ fight all day and he should win it most of the time, and honestly I think there is some value in him at -675. Gustafsson isn’t worth a look at this number so look to parlay Jones with some other fighters at UFC 165.

UFC 166: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos

  • Opening moneyline:: Velasquez (-260)/Dos Santos (+180)
  • Current moneyline: Velasquez (-260)Dos Santos (+180)
  • Opening total: Over 3.5 (+100)/Under 3.5 (-140)
  • Current total:¬†Over 3.5 (+100)/Under 3.5 (-140)

Analysis: The main event of UFC 166 had its line released this week with UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez opening at -260 and the comeback on Dos Santos at +180. This is yet another fight that could go either way but I do have to lean toward Velasquez simply based on how their second fight went. However, I think -260 is too high on him and as Dos Santos showed in their first fight, he does have the ability to land the one-punch home run on Velasquez and put him out. So, at these current lines, I think the value is actually on Dos Santos, although I personally would need over +200 to play him.

By the way, in case anyone was wondering, The MMA Oddsbreaker video series will be back soon.

Written by Adam Martin

Mixed martial arts journalist. Host of The Parting Shot Podcast with James Lynch. Lead writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com and columnist for MMARatings.net. Also a Social Mediaist for The Toronto Star.

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