UFC Future Odds Analysis: Johnson/Moraga, Aldo/Jung, Machida/Davis, Henderson/Grant, Barnett/Mir Jun 23, 2013

TJ Grant

MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas today unveiled five new lines for future fights on 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Here are the odds for the new lines and my analysis of each of them. Current lines are as of 3pm EST on Thursday:

UFC on FOX 8: Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga

  • Opening moneyline: Johnson (-380)/Moraga (+260)
  • Current moneyline: Johnson (-380)/Moraga (+260)
  • Opening total: Over 4.5 (-150)/Under 4.5 (+110)
  • Current total: Over 4.5 (-260)/Under 4.5 (+180)

Analysis: The flyweight title bout between Johnson and Moraga should be competitive but I agree with the number here on Johnson, as he should be a large favorite entering the bout. That’s not to say that Moraga can’t win — he can — but I would need at least +300 if I was going to consider playing him. To me the most interesting bet here is the under 4.5 rounds total, which is paying out +180. If you think there’s going to be a finish here, that’s the bet to make.

UFC 163: Jose Aldo vs. Chan Sung Jung

  • Opening moneyline: Aldo (-505)/Zombie (+335)
  • Current moneyline: Aldo (-750)/Zombie (+450)
  • Opening total: Over 3.5 (-160)/Under 3.5 (+120)
  • Current total: Over 3.5 (-105)/Under 3.5 (-135)

Analysis: The line for Aldo vs. Jung opened low in my opinion, as I personally had him pegged as a -700 favorite. So it’s no surprise at all to me that the public has bet Aldo all the way up to -750 and I think it’s justified. Aldo has the advantages in basically every facet of the game and although Jung is a tough, game fighter, he’ll be in over his head here fighting Aldo in Brazil. He’s also coming off a long injury layoff, which is a concern, and which may be a reason why the public has also taken the plus money on the under 3.5 rounds total.

UFC 163: Lyoto Machida vs. Phil Davis

  • Opening moneyline: Machida (-270)/Davis (+190)
  • Current moneyline: Machida (-380)/Davis (+260)
  • Opening total: Over 2.5 (-190)/Under 2.5 (+150)
  • Current total: Over 2.5 (-165)/Under 2.5 (+125)

Analysis: The light heavyweight bout between Machida and Davis seems like a bit of a mismatch on paper and that’s how the public sees it as well, as they’ve already bet up Machida to -380. Personally I think that’s a bit high so I can’t play it, but Machida should win this fight. If there’s any value in the current lines it’s the under 2.5 rounds total, which pays +125. That’s a decent bet as I do think Machida should get the finish so considering playing that one.

UFC 164: Benson Henderson vs. TJ Grant

  • Opening moneyline:: Henderson (-265)/Grant (+185)
  • Current moneyline: Henderson (-265)/Grant (+185)
  • Opening total: Over 4.5 (-130)/Under 4.5 (-110)
  • Current total: Over 4.5 (-170)/Under 4.5 (+130)

Analysis: The lightweight title bout between Henderson and Grant is very intriguing and I feel as though the line should be closer to even. I know already that Henderson at -265 is unplayable, but I’m curious to see if the moneyline on Grant ever gets any higher. I do think Grant can win this fight and I see some value on him at +185 but I hope he gets to +200, as that’s the magic number for me to play him.

UFC 164: Josh Barnett vs. Frank Mir

  • Opening moneyline:: Barnett (-230)/Mir (+170)
  • Current moneyline: Barnett (-380)/Mir (+260)
  • Opening total: Over 2.5 (+120)/Under 2.5 (-160)
  • Current total: Over 2.5 (+100)/Under 2.5 (-140)

Analysis: The heavyweight bout between Barnett and Mir should be very competitive and to be honest I’m surprised Barnett is such a steep favorite. Although I do lean Barnett ever so slightly, I believe that Mir can win this fight and that there is a lot of value on him at the current line of +260. I’m not sure if the line is going to ever get any higher than this so if you plan on playing Mir you should do so soon.

And, in case any of the readers were wondering, The MMA Oddsbreaker video series will be back soon.

Written by Adam Martin

Mixed martial arts journalist. Read at MMAOddsbreaker.com and Sportsnet.ca. Former MMA reporter for theScore.com. Want to talk about MMA betting? Hit me up on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.

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