UFC Fight Night 28 Bet: Lucas Martins (-130) vs Ramiro Hernandez, Jr. (+120)
Sep 4, 2013
UFC Fight Night 28
Date: September 4, 2013
Arena: Mineirinho Arena
City: Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Bantamweight bout: Lucas Martins (-130) vs Ramiro Hernandez, Jr. (+120)
Fight Breakdown: The UFC Fight Night 28 prelims features a contest between two bantamweight warriors when the Brazilian Lucas Martins takes on Iowa’s Ramiro Hernandez, Jr. Martins is currently the favorite at -305 ($305 to win $100), while Hernandez is the underdog at +120 ($100 to win $120) at 5Dimes Sportsbooks.
LUCAS MARTINS (13-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is coming off an impressive third round victory over TUF veteran Jeremy Larsen. Martins is making his third appearance inside the Octagon; the previous two were also in front of Brazilian crowds. Martins first UFC bout was as a late replacement against Edson Barboza. He lost the bout in the first round, as he tapped out due to strikes. That is the lone loss of Martins’ professional mixed martial arts career and it came against a top ten lightweight; and lightweight being two weight-classes above his natural weight class of bantamweight, where he is fighting at in this bout. Lucas Martins is a talented striker. He has some flashy moves and scores nice highlight-reel knockouts. In fact, nine of his thirteen career victories have come by way of TKO/KO. As soon as the first round bell sounds, Martins moves forward, looking for the finish. While his offensive striking is good, his defensive striking is horrendous. He gets hit by punches someone fighting on a UFC level should not be getting hit by. He let’s too many of them go through. I believe against a talented striker, it could spell for trouble. Martins’ other weakness is his cardio. At bantamweight, I expect it to be even worse than it was at lightweight.
RAMIRO HERNANDEZ, JR. (13-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is making his promotional debut and bantamweight debut simultaneously. Hernandez is a skilled martial artist and is well known on the MMA scene in his hometown of Iowa, where he trains out of the Pat Miletich Camp (Miletich Fighting Systems). He is a striker who loves to stand and trade. His striking defense is solid, as he tends to avoid punches really well. He loves to use his knees, especially when he gets in on a good clinch. Ramiro Hernandez likes to move forward and throw hard leather at his opponent. He has a good set of punches, including an overhand right that sort of comes across the shoulder instead of around it. He also has a solid chin; he’s been dropped before, but never finished. He has a decent ground game to compliment his stand up. His takedowns are average but his transitions are nice. He has good submissions but also good submission defense. While Hernandez doesn’t have incredible conditioning, I believe he will certainly be at a cardio advantage going into this bout.
Fight Prediction: These two fighters are both making their bantamweight debuts in this scrap. I am expecting this fight to take place on the feet and for there to be back-and-forth action until someone’s lights get put out, and I think that someone is going to be Lucas Martins.
Gabe’s Pick: Ramiro Hernandez by TKO (strikes, 4:39 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ramiro Hernandez +3.5 -160 and Ramiro Hernandez +125, big on both. Moderate on Hernandez ITD +250, with a stab on Hernandez by Submission +1008 for sake of value. I think more than likely it will be a knockout, though, but I chose to go with ITD +250 prop, rather than the +330 prop, ‘cos I can see Hernandez also winning this by sub.
Gabe Killian is a mixed martial arts journalist and handicapper, as well as a stand-up comedian and writer. You can find his work here on MMA Odds breaker and as columnist in the Los Angeles City College newspaper.