TUF 17 Betting Odds Breakdown: TUF Middleweights Final Uriah Hall (-300) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+220)
Apr 13, 2013
The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale: April 13, 2013 Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada
UFC Middleweight Contender Uriah Hall (-300)
Profile: The most hyped talent to come out of The Ultimate Fighter in perhaps the history of the show is undoubtedly Uriah Hall (7-2). After spending most of his time in the Ring of Combat organization over the last three years and making a one-fight stop in Bellator, Hall was able to face some game competition, including current UFC No. 1 middleweight contender Chris Weidman, who he lost to via first-round TKO. But it was on TUF 17 that he really turned heads, scoring one of the most incredible knockouts in UFC history with a spinning hook kick that sent Adam Cella to the hospital. Next the 28-year-old Jamaican-American fought Jackson-Winklejohn vet Bubba McDaniels in the quarterfinals and sent him to he hospital with multiple face fractures. In the semifinals, Hall was able to TKO Dylan Andrews off his back in the full guard at the end of the second round for another incredible finish. The hype train on “Prime Time” is moving forward so fast it’s hard to comprehend, making him one of the most promising UFC prospects ever. Now Hall just needs to keep living up to it like he has on the show and avoid overlooking anybody as he continues to climb the ranks.
UFC Middleweight Contender Kelvin Gastelum (+220)
Profile: Picked last by Team Sonnen on Season 17 of The Ultimate Fighter, Kelvin Gastelum (5-0) has been fighting to prove his worth in the Octagon from the outset. Now, the 21-year-old Arizona native fights for the ultimate prize as he takes on the much-hyped Hall in the final, a position many did not believe he could achieve in the beginning. It could be argued that Gastelum has all the tools needed to dismantle Hall, as he has a good wrestling base and ground game that could smother his opponent. However, his height disadvantage and short reach could prove troublesome for the undefeated wrestler yet inexperienced mixed martial artist. Gastelum has finished every fight in his career, including all four exhibition bouts during TUF 17, and he is very strong with solid ground-and-pound skills to go along with his dangerous submission game.
Opening TUF 17 Finale Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Hall a big -300 favorite (bet $300 to win $100) while Gastelum opened as a +220 underdog (bet $100 to win $220) at 5Dimes sportsbook. Gastelum pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the show in the semifinals when he took out Team Jones top pick Josh Samman via rear-naked choke submission in the first round. Samman was matched up with Gastelum by UFC president Dana White with hopes that he would face Hall in the final instead. But Gastelum turned in another impressive performance to stun Samman and join Hall as the only ones to finish their opponents in every bout while living inside the TUF house. Hall has seen a lot of action in his favor so far, with MMA bettors pushing the line as high as -400 on Friday. That could go even higher even though both fighters have been equally dominant. Hall definitely has an edge in size and experience, standing three inches taller with an eight-inch reach advantage and professional losses against only Weidman and Costa Philippou. In order for Gastelum to have a chance, he will need to figure out a way to use his wrestling to get Hall to the ground, where he could limit his opponent’s striking and possibly overpower him. While Hall has proven he can win from his back, he is clearly more comfortable on the feet, and he could very well end this one again with another brutal KO if the fight stays there. And since just one of a combined 12 pro wins between them has gone to the judges, a finish seems like the most obvious result.
Matty began writing about sports gambling in 1996 with Computer Sports World, which later became DBC Sports and Vegas Insider. He was named Senior Editor of DBC Sports in 1997 and worked alongside legendary oddsmaker Michael “Roxy” Roxborough on a nationally syndicated column called Sports Book Insider. In 1998, Matty moved to California for six years to work for tech companies Netscape and 3Com before returning to Vegas in 2005 as the GM of Content for Pregame.com. He later founded his own company Content Champs in 2010 to continue his passion for sports and writing, and his clients have included AccuScore, Maddux Sports, Don Best and OddsShark while he also recently became a contributor at the newly launched SportsLine.com. A knowledgeable fan of many sports, his strong interest in MMA led him to become Senior Writer at MMAOddsBreaker in May of 2012.