Gabe Killian’s UFC Fight Night 33 Preliminary Card Parlay Dec 5, 2013

brunosantosUFC Fight Night 33
Date: December 6, 2013
Arena: Brisbane Entertainment Centre
City: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

The UFC Fight Night 33 preliminary card will be live on Facebook starting 6:30 pm ET, and will move on to FOX Sports 2 at 7 pm ET. If interested in wagering on my recommended parlay, or any other plays, these fight lines will be made available to you at 5Dimes Sportsbooks.

These are the three match-ups for my parlay:

Middleweight bout: Bruno Santos (-190) vs Krzysztof Jotko (+150)

Fight Prediction: I could not get myself to confidently pick a winner in this match-up. There are too many questions marks for me. We have two fighters making their promotional debuts, both with identical undefeated records of 13-0. I am leaning with Jotko to edge it out as the underdog, but I cannot bring myself to make such a recommendation. This is one fight that is not easy to handicap, as I cannot really give a big advantage to either fighter. However, I do see this fight going on for all three rounds of action more often than not. I think the only way it doesn’t reach the distance is if one of the fighters (Santos, most likely) runs out of gas late in the fight, and ends up getting choked out. As long as neither fighter has trouble with fatigue, I see this one going all the way to the judges’ scorecards, regardless of it being a back and forth fight, or a one-sided beatdown.

Gabe’s Pick: Jotko by Split-Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Welterweight bout: Alex Garcia (-535) vs Ben Wall (+420)

Fight Prediction: I think Garcia is simply going to outclass Wall in every aspect of the game. He is going to get the better of him on the feet, where he will likely keep the fight, as he looks to put the Australian native away. If I had to give one advantage to Wall, it would be his conditioning. That is his main tool in this bout, but I’m not sure he will be able to use it. Should the fight go to round three, I think Wall will have more in his gas tank, but I can’t say for certain that Garcia will be very tired. He has had a full training camp for this bout, whereas Wall is stepping in on short notice as a late injury replacement for European welterweight prospect Andreas Stahl. This fight really is Garcia’s to lose. As the latest member of the Tri-Star gym in Montreal to make his Octagon debut, Garcia plans to impress with a dominant performance, as he looks to make noise in the UFC’s welterweight division. It is worth noting that a drop to lightweight, though unconfirmed, may be in his future. Especially considering all the monsters he will eventually be up against at 170 pounds.

Gabe’s Pick: Alex Garcia by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Flyweight bout: Justin Scoggins (-240) vs Richie Vaculik (+200)

Fight Prediction: Vaculik is a very tough fighter who has a lot of heart, but that is pretty much all he will have to offer against Scoggins. Scoggins is one of the best flyweight strikers in all of mixed martial arts, and now he is set to make his Octagon debut against the  Australian native. Believe it or not, Vaculik competed as a lightweight on the TUF Smashes reality series. Scoggins is a full-time fighter, while Vaculik only competes part time. He is a famous surfer and actor in Australia, so he does not have the time to dedicate to being a full-time professional fighter. Scoggins, however, eats, sleeps, and breathes fighting. The proof will be in the pudding tomorrow night, when he displays his wide range of tools against the very durable Aussie. Because of how incredibly tough Vaculik is, I can’t bring myself to recommend a play on Scoggins winning by knockout or inside the distance. If there is a -3.5 option, however, that would be worth a play. I think Scoggins is going to keep this on the feet, and just make Vaculik look like he doesn’t belong there with him. He may end up getting a stoppage, otherwise I see it as being a clear cut three rounds to none.

Gabe’s Pick: Justin Scoggins by Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-25, 30-26)

Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Santos/Jotko Over 2.5 rounds (-210), Alex Garcia (-535), and Justin Scoggins (-240) for +148. 3u to win 4.44u

Make sure you are following me on Twitter, as I will likely have prop plays for these fights, once the odds are released.

Written by Gabe Killian

Gabe Killian is a mixed martial arts journalist and handicapper, as well as a stand-up comedian and writer. You can find his work here on MMA Odds breaker and as columnist in the Los Angeles City College newspaper.

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