Gabe Killian’s TUF 18 Finale Betting Recap and Results Dec 2, 2013

ryan-benoit-banner-622x412Note from the editor: The final tally of results was off in the original article. This mistake has been rectified and will not happen again.

The Ultimate Fighter 18 finale is now behind us, and another season of the reality series is in the bag. It was the first card in UFC history to feature three women’s fights on the main card. Let’s take a look at how our bets did…

Things started off with a loss on a play recommended on Twitter, as Ryan Benoit (+110) came up short against Josh Sampo in a Fight of the Night award-winning battle. We dropped 1u there, but immediately made it back in the next bout, as Sean Spencer (-210) cashed for 1u, when he defeated Drew Dober by unanimous decision.

It was all even going into the third bout of the evening, where heavyweights Walter Harris and Jared Rosholt collided in their promotional debuts. I recommended a 2u play on Harris, which we lost, because he came short in a decision. I feel he was robbed, as I scored the first two rounds for him; the first round could have been a 10-8. The good news is, I had recommended Rosholt by Decision (+400) on Twitter to hedge the Harris bet, as I felt that was his best shot at a victory, and loved the odds. Rightfully so, as it was down to +230 the next time I took a look. With the Rosholt decision win cashing for 4u, we walk away from that fight up 2u, and also +2u on the night.

Next, in a featherweight contest, we lost a recommended Twitter bet on Tom Niinimaki wins inside distance (+375) for 1u, as he won a decision, and was unable to find a finish. That was followed up by another featherweight match-up, in which we cashed a bet on Akira Corassani (+145) for 5.8u, but ended up losing 3.3u on the Over 2.5 (-110) prop. Maximo Blanco caught Corassani with a knee, and after what seemed to be a fine acting job on behalf of Corassani, referee Mario Yamasaki stopped the fight and awarded him the win via disqualification. We stepped away from that fight up 2.5u, and +3.5u on the night.

The main card kicked off, and we cashed a monster play on Raquel Pennington (+280) for 5u, but unfortunately, we lost 6.75u on the Under 2.5 (-130) prop. We also lost 6.85u on Pennington wins inside distance, and 1.85u on Fight won’t go the distance. At the end of this fight, we were in the red for 6.95u, so things started to not look so good. I was confident Pennington would win, but I shouldn’t have gone so big on the ITD and under. I was expecting a knockout, but knew there was a chance she wouldn’t fight to her full potential, as I expected some Octagon jitters from her.

In the next fight of the evening, we had Jessamyn Duke (-210) as part of a two-team parlay for +118, so that stayed alive, but unfortunately, we dropped 2u on Duke wins inside distance (+195). In the TUF 18 bantamweight tournament finals, we had a play on Chris Holdsworth (-210), as part of a two-team parlay with Duke for +118 for 5.6u, which cashed beautifully, as Holdsworth sunk in a rear naked choke in the second round to become the TUF season 18 winner.

We had a play on Jessica Rakozcy (+200) when she took on Julianna Pena in the TUF season 18 women’s bantamweight finals. Pena mounted Rakozcy, and rained down punches and elbows, until referee Mario Yamasaki stepped in to stop the fight with one second remaining in the round. I personally felt the ref could have let it go one more second just to see what Rakozcy had in the next round, and if it was going to be stopped, he should have stopped it 30 seconds earlier when Pena was landing the more damaging blows. This one hurt. We lost 3u on Rakozcy and 9.1u on Over 2.5 rounds (-130).

Going into the main event of the evening, we are -14.45u, and are now having a terrible night. Nate Diaz knocked out Gray Maynard in the first round, and immediately made me regret not pulling the trigger on Diaz by KO (+751). I looked at that prop for days, and came close to hitting it every time! I thought Diaz might get a submission, and I would be kicking myself, so I decided to play it safe and take Diaz wins inside distance (+335), instead of the KO or submission props. Most Diaz backers thought we would get a sub, but I was feeling more confident about a knockout. I cashed the Diaz ITD prop for 3.35u, but my main play on the fight, Gray Maynard -3.5 lost for 3.5u. I assumed it’d be either Maynard 30-27 or Diaz ITD, and played both sides. I would have ended up slightly profiting, instead of slightly losing on the fight, had I not added a last minute 1u on Maynard via Twitter.

We wrapped up the main card being down 14.6u, which would have been brutal. Fortunately, my pick for Fight of the Night, Benoit/Sampo +900 cashed tremendously for 18u, as I had recommended a 2u bet on it. We profited 14u off that prop, since we lost 4u on Rakozcy/Pena FOTN +325, and ultimately ended up finishing the night in the red, -1.6u.

I have been waiting for the Australia card to arrive, and it is finally here. I believe UFC Fight Night 33 is going to be a very big night for us, so be sure to keep checking in!

Written by Gabe Killian

Gabe Killian is a mixed martial arts journalist and handicapper, as well as a stand-up comedian and writer. You can find his work here on MMA Odds breaker and as columnist in the Los Angeles City College newspaper.

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