Free UFC Fight Night 28 Picks: Glover Teixeira (-420) vs. Ryan Bader (+375) Sep 3, 2013
UFC Fight Night 28 Belo Horizonte, Brazil Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Light heavyweight bout (five rounds): Glover Teixeira (-420) vs. Ryan Bader (+375)
Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC Fight Night 28 is a five-round light heavyweight bout between Glover Teixeira and Ryan Bader. Teixeira is a -420 favorite (bet $420 to win $100) while Bader is a +375 underdog (bet $100 to win $375) at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Teixeira (21-2) is an absolute beast who has won 19-straight fights and he has already been told by the UFC that he will get a title shot against the winner of Jon Jones/Alexander Gustafsson with an impressive win over Bader. The 33-year-old has excellent wrestling, powerful striking, and his submission game is top notch. In short, he’s a monster and he’s a horrible style matchup for anyone in the division save Jones. Teixeira came into the UFC with a lot of hype and he’s since proven the hype is real with dominant wins over Kyle Kingsbury, Fabio Maldonado, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and James Te Huna. And if he can do the same to Bader, he will get the opportunity that he is indeed the best in the world.
Bader (15-3) is one of the strongest wrestlers in the division and he also packs a big punch. The 30-year-old won TUF season eight and went on a nice run to start his UFC career, but he was destroyed by Jones at UFC 126 and the followed that up with an embarrassing submission loss to Tito Ortiz at UFC 132. He’s come on as of late with wins over “Rampage,” Vladimir Matyushenko and Jason Brilz (with a KO loss to Lyoto Machida sandwiched in there), but he’s still a limited fighter and unless he can land the hail mark KO punch of Teixeira’s chin, he’s going to lose.
Fight Prediction: I see Teixeira really bullying Bader on the feet right from the opening bell and I think he’s going to hurt Bader with strikes. Like in the Tito Ortiz fight, Bader will leave his neck exposed after he gets rocked, Teixeira will sink in his signature guillotine choke, and the fight will be over within the first five minutes of action.
Adam’s Recommended Play: My main bet here is “the fight does not go the distance” at -425 as all you need is a finish from either fighter and you cash out. In a five-round fight between two guys with heavy hands, the chances of this fight make it the full 25 minutes are slim-to-none and since I cap this prop at -1000 I think it’s the way to go here. I also like Teixeira by submission at +250 for a small play in a prop round robin.