Bellator 93 Picks: Lightweight Final Dave Jansen (-150) vs. Marcin Held (+130)
Mar 20, 2013
Bellator 93 Androscoggin Bank Colisee, Lewiston, Maine, US Thursday, March 21, 2013 Lightweight Final: Dave Jansen (-150) vs. Marcin Held (+130)
Fight Breakdown: The main event of Bellator 93 is the finals of the Season 7 Bellator lightweight tournament as Dave Jansen takes on Marcin Held. Jansen is currently a -150 favorite (bet $150 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while the comeback on Held is +130 (bet $100 to win $130).
Jansen (19-2) has won five fights in a row in Bellator since his release from the WEC. The 33-year-old wrestler from Portland, Oregon, is one of the more underrated lightweight fighters out there and probably should be fighting in the UFC. However, he’s in Bellator for the time being and he’s certainly making the most of it with the win streak he’s been riding. Jansen has been working on his striking, but let’s be honest here, he’s a wrestler with an excellent ground game, as he has 11 submission victories to his credit. Although he’ll likely look to keep this fight with Held standing, don’t be surprised at all if it ends up on the ground, if not for the simple fact both men are so used to fighting on the mat.
Held (15-2) is only 21-years-old and is one of the top lightweight prospects in mixed martial arts. With a 4-1 record in Bellator with the only loss coming to Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler, there’s no doubt that Held is an absolute stud, and the thing is he’s only getting better and better each fight. A submission master who holds eight career wins via tapout (many via foot locks), Held has been improving his striking as well and has three TKO wins on his resume as well. There’s no doubt that the foot lock master Held will be looking to get Jansen to the mat in this fight; the only question is if he can get him there.
Fight Prediction: Even though Jansen is going to try to keep this fight standing, it’s his natural inclination as a wrestler to fight his fights on the mat, and considering that’s where Held wants the fight to go too, I do see the fight hitting the ground. And when it does, you better believe Held is going to go for his submissions, although Jansen’s sub defence will likely be too solid to get tapped out. This is a close fight that could go either way, but I’ll slide with the younger fighter and take the plus money and go with Held eeking out a close decision (if not outright submitting Jansen).
Adam’s Recommended Play: This is a pretty close fight but I do like the + odds on Held. I’d recommended putting him in a round robin with the other two dogs on the card (Waachiim Spiritwolf and Ryan Martinez). If you get two right, you break even, and if you get all three right, you win big, so I think for a fun play that’s the way to go, but don’t put too much cash down because all of these fights can go either way.