Oleksiy OliynykThe Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) was in Phoenix, AZ for the third time in promotional history last Sunday (January 15, 2017) with UFC FIght Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn. The night had it’s ups and downs, and with the action now in our rear-view, let’s take a look at some potential match-ups featuring a few of the successful competitors from the evening…

Oleksiy Oliynyk vs. Junior Dos Santos

Oliynyk scored a very impressive first-round Ezekiel choke submission from bottom mount position over Viktor Pesta, and despite it only being the second submission of the year, I think it has a good chance of ending up as the best submission of the year 11-and-a-half months from now when we turn the page over to 2018. The victory puts the Ukrainian heavyweight back in the win column following the first official loss of his UFC career, which came via majority decision against Daniel Omielanczuk. For his next bout, I’d be interested in seeing Oliynyk fill in for the injured Stefan Struve against former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos on short notice for next month’s UFC Fight Night 106 in Halifax. The potential bout would serve as the evening’s main event.

Sergio Pettis vs. Jussier Formiga

Pettis earned a unanimous-decision win over short-notice injury replacement John Moraga and now enjoys a three-fight winning streak inside the Octagon. Moraga was a replacement for Pettis’ original opponent, Formiga, and following his victory, Pettis made it known that he still wants the Brazilian. In this razor-thin division, I think there is a very good chance that the UFC puts this matchup together again.

Joe Lauzon vs. Tony Martin

Lauzon and Martin were each successful in their bouts at UFC Fight Night 103 in Phoenix, with Lauzon taking a controversial split-decision win over former Bellator lightweight title challenger Marcin Held, and Martin earning a unanimous decision over Alex White in what was a one-sided affair. Lauzon and Martin are both excellent grapplers, and I think this would stylistically be a fun matchup, as things could get very interesting when the fight hits the mat, where both 155-pounders generally want to take things. This fight would have a good chance of earning Lauzon his ninth ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus in the UFC and seems like an appropriate step up in competition for Martin.

Walt Harris vs. Alexander Volkov

Harris returned to the win column with a second-round knockout of Chase Sherman. It was without a doubt the most impressive performance of Harris’ UFC career, and for his next outing inside the Octagon, I think it would make sense to see him take on former Bellator heavyweight title holder Volkov, who is 1-0 in the UFC after a controversial decision win over Timothy Johnson. I think a potential Harris versus Volkov bout would be a solid addition to either March’s UFC Fight Night 106 in London or April’s UFC 210 in Buffalo, NY.

Share

Yair RodriguezAt UFC 197 last April, Yair Rodriguez took on Andre Fili in what was the stiffest test of his professional mixed martial arts career, and he won that bout by second-round knockout, scoring one of the best knockouts of the year. The victory earned him a main event slot in his next outing, although rather than climbing up the rankings, he took on an unranked opponent in Alex Careres and defeated him by split decision following five entertaining rounds of action that earned both fighters an extra $50k for ‘Fight of the Night’ honors.

Many felt a victory over Caceres in his first main event slot and a five-fight winning streak inside the Octagon would earn the Mexican featherweight a crack at a Top 10 ranked opponent, but the UFC had other plans. They pitted him against a legend. A Hall of Famer. They matched him up with BJ Penn in the former champion’s return to the Octagon.

Rather than see a climb up the rankings, Rodriguez took another step down with this matchup. The fact that Penn is a Hall of Famer does not change that fact. Any hardcore fight fan would tell you that this was going to be a completely one-sided affair.

The Rodriguez versus Penn matchup made absolutely zero sense, no matter which way you looked at it. The only reasonable explanation is that the UFC wanted the outcome we witnressed on Sunday night. For Penn’s return to the Octagon, matchmakers should have given him an opponent closer to his current skill leven and/or age. Throwing a 38-year-old on a three-fight losing streak against a 24-year-old monster on a five-fight winning streak only tells the world you really dislike the veteran and want to see him hurt.

Rodriguez was in complete control of the contest and ended up defeating Penn via TKO early in the second round of action. The victory will now hopefully earn him a ranked opponent his next time out. Had he continued climbing up the featherweight ladder rather than down it following the win over Fili, he would have potentially worked his way into the division’s Top 5 by now.

Share

John MoragaThe Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) was in Phoenix, AZ for the third time in promotional history last Sunday (January 15, 2017) with UFC FIght Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn. The night had its ups and downs, and with the action now in our rear-view, let’s take a look at which of the evening’s competitors we may no longer see going to work inside the Octagon…

ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK

John Moraga

Moraga stepped in on short notice as a replacement for the injured Jussier Formiga against Sergio Pettis and lost the bout via unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards following three rounds of action. The loss puts him on a three-fight losing streak following a pair of unanimous decision losses to Joseph Benavidez and Matteus Nicolau. Due to the short notice nature of the bout, I could see the UFC giving Moraga another shot at cracking back into the win column, but the UFC does not usually care about the details behind a loss. I think there is a good chance that they will serve Moraga with his walking papers, but I would definitely not be surprised to see him back inside the Octagon, especially considering how razor-thin the UFC’s flyweight division is.

Frankie Saenz

Saenz came up short in a split-decision loss to Augusto Mendes last night and is now on a three-fight skid inside the Octagon, including a unanimous-decision loss to Urijah Faber and a third-round TKO at the hands of Eddie Wineland. Considering the close nature of the bout, I could see the promotion giving him another crack, however, the UFC is not know to be too friendly, so I think it’s more likely that he will be receiving a pink slip from the promotion.

Viktor Pesta

Pesta suffered the first-ever Ezekiel choke submission in the UFC first round at the hands of Alexei Oliynik in the first round and is now on a three-fight losing streak in the UFC. He was winning the bout and had mounted Pesta on the mat when the Ukrainian snuck in a choke from bottom position. It was an incredible submission, with a very good chance of being the best of the year 12 months from now.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

Jones-Lybarger went into her bout against Nina Ansaroff with her back against the wall, coming off back-to-back defeats against Tecia Torres and Randa Markos. She suffered her third straight loss against Ansaroff, being submitted via rear-naked choke in the third and final round of action. Following three straight defeats, I think there is a good chance we have seen the former RFA women’s strawweight champion inside the Octagon. However, I would not be surprised to see the promotion keep her around, considering how small the UFC’s women’s strawweight division is.

Share

Nina AnsaroffFive Props is a column featured on MMAOddsBreaker.com after every major MMA event that highlights the biggest underdog prop bets to cash out from that card. Here are five UFC Fight Night 103 prop bets that cashed big based on the closing odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

1) Augusto Mendes by Decision (+401)

Mendes returned from an extended layoff following his short-notice Octagon debut, when he suffered the first loss of his pro career via first-round knockout at the hands of current UFC bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt. In his return Sunday night in Phoenix, he took on Frankie Saenz and defeated him via split decision following three closely contested rounds of action. Mendes managed to earn his first UFC victory and took home an extra $50k for ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Meanwhile, those who took him to win by decision cashed out at a very nice +401.

2) Tony Martin by Decision (+227)

Martin defeated Alex White via unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards to make it two in a row for himself inside the Octagon. Many questioned his cardio, but it held up for all three rounds, as he was able to out-grapple White for the majority of 15 minutes of action to pick up the unanimous nod. Congratulations are definitely in order to those who gambled on Martin to take this fight on the scorecards, as most bettors felt he was likely to win by submission.

3) Nina Ansaroff by Submission (+656)

Ansaroff stepped into the Octagon with her back against the wall and snapped her two=fight winning streak by dominating and ultimately submitting Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger via rear-naked choke in the third and final round of action. She followed up nicely on her girlfriend Amanda Nunes’ win over Ronda Rousey with the impressive performance. Those who wagered on her to win by submission made out with a very sweet +656, so congrats if you were on that one!

4) Joachim Christensen by T/KO +255 (+255)

Christensen defeated Bojan Mihajlovic via TKO in the third round to pick up his first UFC victory. He dominated the fight until catching Mihajlovic with a clean uppercut in the third that put him down and out of commission. It was an impressive performance and victory by Christensen, who kindly allowed those who wagered on him to win this fight by T/KO to cash out at a solid +255.

5) Cyril Asker by T/KO (+350)

Asker made short work of Dmitry Smoliakov in this contest, finding himself in mount position early and scoring a first-round TKO finish. The Frenchman impressed in his second UFC appearance in getting his first taste of Octagon victory. Those who wagered on him to defeat the Belarussian by T/KO cashed out at a cool +350.

A $100 parlay on these five props would have netted $197,755.

Share

Marcin HeldUFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs Penn
Date: January 15, 2017
Arena: Talking Stick Resort Arena
City: Phoenix AZ

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Phoenix, AZ for the second time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs Penn. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6pm ET on Fight Pass, and prelims will continue at 8pm on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

The ‘Fight of the Night’ plays that hold the most value are:

Lauzon/Held +400 || .5u to win 2u

Lauzon is a bonus machine and is always a good bet to contend for the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ honors, regardless of the fight card which he is competing on. Whether this bout lasts a few minutes or goes the three round distance, I think it stands a good chance of being quite an entertaining one. Lauzon and Held are two lightweights are both generally fun to watch, as they deliver exciting performances. They have somewhat similar styles, in the sense that they are submission aces who often risk giving up position to go for submissions. I think this bout stands a good chance of taking home the bonus, and at +400, I think it’s worth a should. Should they manage to make it happen, it would be the eight time for Lauzon, while being the very first for Held in this only his second appearance inside the Octagon.

Powell/Klose +1000 || .5u to win 5u

This is a match-up that pits together two promotional newcomers in the UFC’s lightweight division and I think they are both solid prospects at 155-pounds. I expect them to both deliver in their UFC debuts in an effort to get their hand raised for the first time inside the Octagon. They both have a lot to fight for in this match-up and I think they will both leave it all in the cage in Phoenix today. At +1000, I think this play holds great value and is worth a shot. These promotional newcomers who are each likely only making 10k to show stand a decent chance of taking home an extra 50k each when all is said and done, and it would of course be the first ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus for both, at it is their first fight with the promotion.

Share

ufc-on-fox-5UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs Penn
Date: January 15, 2017
Arena: Talking Stick Resort Arena
City: Phoenix AZ

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Phoenix, AZ for the second time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs Penn. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6pm ET on Fight Pass, and prelims will continue at 8pm on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on this parlay, or any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are currently made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

And without further ado, here are my one-liners for UFC 205 in New York City…

MAIN CARD (FOX SPORTS 1)

Yair Rodriguez vs BJ Penn

Hall of Famer Penn returns to the Octagon to take on young prospect Rodriguez in a main event match-up that makes absolutely zero sense.

Joe Lauzon vs Marcin Held

Saunders returns for a third UFC stint to take on TUF 11 winner McGee in one of the most highly anticipated bouts on the entire fight card.

Court McGee vs Ben Saunders

Saunders returns for a third UFC stint to take on TUF 11 winner McGee in one of the most highly anticipated bouts on the entire fight card.

John Moraga vs Sergio Pettis

A flyweight affair between two entertaining scrappers that is expected to get the main card rolling on a high note.

PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX SPORTS 1)

Frankie Saenz vs Augusto Mendes

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Mendes looks for his first UFC win over Arizona’s Saenz, who has his back against the wall heading into this one.

Oleksiy Oliynyk vs Viktor Pesta

A heavyweight contest that has a 50/50 chance of being very entertaining or a complete snooze-fest.

Tony Martin vs Alex Martin

White steps in on short notice and up a weight class to take on the always dangerous Martin in a potential ‘Fight of the Night’ candidate.

Walt Harris vs Chase Sherman

A heavyweight showdown with potential for fireworks that will make the victor relevant in the UFC’s heavyweight division.

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS)

Nina Ansaroff vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

Ansaroff’s looks to build off the momentum made by her girlfriend Amanda Nunes by defeating Arizona’s own Lybarger.

Devin Powell vs Drakkar Klose

A pair of 155-pound prospects make their UFC debuts in this match-up that could prove to be a sleeper for the evening’s ‘FOTN’ bonus.

Joachim Christensen vs Bojan Mihajlovic

Mihaljovic drops down to the 205-pound division to take on Christensen in a match-up that has drawn the interest of absolutely no one.

Dmitry Smoliakov vs Cyril Asker

A heavyweight battle that will kick things off for UFC Fight Night 103, and this one is not expected to go the full three round distance.

Share

sergio-pettisUFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs Penn
Date: January 15, 2017
Arena: Talking Stick Resort Arena
City: Phoenix AZ

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Phoenix, AZ for the second time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs Penn. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6pm ET on Fight Pass, and prelims will continue at 8pm on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Here are my preliminary card prop plays:

Yair Rodriguez (-420) vs BJ Penn (+335)

Rodriguez by Submission (+774) .55u to win 4.25u

I think there is value in this betting line, as I think Rodriguez is quick enough to potentially catch Penn in a submission, especially after hurting the veteran with strikes.

Joe Lauzon (-110) vs Marcin Held (-110)

Held by Submission (+450) 1u to win 4.5u

Contrary to popular opinion, I think this is the most likely outcome to this 155-pound contest and see value in the +450 betting line, considering the moneyline is at coin-flip odds. Lauzon has an excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, but I think Held is superior in the submission game, both offensively and defensively. I think 15 minutes of plenty of time for him to find a finish here. Octagon jitters out of the way, the Polish lightweight should come away with a solid victory here, likely by submission.

Sergio Pettis (-150) vs John Moraga (+130)

Pettis by Decision (+126) 1u to win 1.26u

I believe this is the most likely outcome to this flyweight contest, as I see Pettis technically outstriking Moraga for the majority of three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.

Frankie Saenz (-165) vs Augusto Mendes (+145)

Mendes Inside the Distance (+315) 1u to win 3.15u

Simply put, I like Mendes in this spot and I think he gets the job done inside the distance.

Alexei Oleinik (-140) vs Viktor Pesta (+120)

Pesta in Round One (+900) 1u to win 9u

This is simply a value play, as I think there is a decent chance Pesta catches the Ukrainian heavyweight early in this contest.


Click Here to Make a Donation!

Share

Marcin HeldUFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Date: January 15, 2017
Arena: Talking Stick Resort Arena
City: Phoenix, AZ

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Phoenix, AZ for the second time in promotional history this Sunday (January 15, 2017) with UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6 p.m. (ET) on Fight Pass, and prelims will continue at 8 p.m. on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Here are my live dogs:

Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon (-130) vs. Marcin Held (+110)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Held made his promotional debut a couple months back against Diego Sanchez and lost the bout via unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. He now gets a second crack at a first UFC win against TUF 5 veteran Lauzon, who scored a knockout of Sanchez just half a year ago at UFC 200. According to MMA math, this should be Lauzon’s fight, but I don’t see things playing out that way. I expect Held to have improved cardio this time around and for his Octagon jitters to be out of the way. I think this fight will be largely contested on the mat, and while I believe Lauzon is a submission ace, I do think that Held is the superior submission grappler who is more capable of ending this fight by submission. Lauzon is coming off a controversial split-decision loss to Jim Miller and will be looking to get back on track with a win over the 24-year-old Polish prospect. I think Held should be slightly favored in this contest, so I like him for a pay at his current underdog price of +110.

Gabe’s Call: Held by Submission (toe hold, 1:44 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Held (+110) 2u to win 2.2u

Bantamweight bout: Frankie Saenz (-155) vs. Augusto Mendes (+135)

Gabe’s Thoughts: There are some unanswered questions surrounding Mendes heading into this contest, and I feel like I know the answers to them. I think he can hang with Saenz on the feet and get the better of him on the mat. I see this fight hitting the mat sooner or later, where I expect it will be a matter of time until he locks up a submission to earn the tap from Saenz. Mendes lost via first-round knockout in his short-notice UFC debut against current UFC bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt, which marked the first official defeat of his professional mixed martial arts career. He will be looking to get back into the win column by picking up his first UFC victory over the 36-year-old Mendes. I think Mendes should be slightly favored heading into this contest, so I like him for a play at his current offering underdog price of +135.

Gabe’s Call: Mendes by Submission (guillotine choke, 1:33 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Mendes (+135) 2u to win 2.7u

All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated.


Click Here to Make a Donation!

Share

Nina AnsaroffUFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Date: January 15, 2017
Arena: Talking Stick Resort Arena
City: Phoenix, AZ

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Phoenix, AZ for the second time in promotional history this Sunday (January 15, 2017) with UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6 p.m. (ET) on Fight Pass, and prelims will continue at 8 p.m. on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Here are my plays:

Featherweight bout: BJ Penn (+375) vs. Yair Rodriguez (-470)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I was hoping Penn would be done after seeing what happened to him in the third fight against Frankie Edgar three years ago. In his return, I was hoping he would get an easy opponent, but the UFC is feeding him to the wolves here. They must not love him too much is what I take away from this matchup. Rodriguez is going to simply be too much for the Hawaiian, and I don’t think he will be able to do anything about it. I see Rodriguez getting the better of Penn everywhere in this match. He is too fast and too slick. This is Rodriguez’s fight to lose, and I have a hard time seeing him coming up short. Even at -470, I think he holds a good amount of value and favor him in this two-way parlay for Sunday night.

Gabe’s Call: Rodriguez by T/KO (strikes, 3:17 round 1)

Strawweight bout: Nina Ansaroff (-145) vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (+125)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Ansaroff is simply the better fighter of the two, and combine that with the momentum she probably feels from her girlfriend Amanda Nunes winning and defending the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title, I see her going into this match ready to give it 100 percent in an attempt to get her hand raised and return to the win column. Jones-Lybarger will be enjoying the home advantage in this contest, but I think having the crowd against her is something Ansaroff could feed off of. I think she should be a -180 betting favorite heading into this women’s 115-pound matchup, so I like her at her current offering price of -145.

Gabe’s Call: Ansaroff by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Gabe’s Recommeded Parlay: Rodriguez (-470) and Ansaroff (-145) at +104 for 2.05u to win 2.15u

All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated.


Click Here to Make a Donation!

Share

Sergio PettisUFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Date: January 15, 2017
Arena: Talking Stick Resort Arena
City: Phoenix, AZ

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Phoenix, AZ for the second time in promotional history this Sunday (January 15, 2017) with UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6 p.m. (ET) on Fight Pass, and prelims will continue at 8 p.m. on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Here are my plays:

Flyweight bout: John Moraga (+115) vs. Sergio Pettis (-135)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Moraga will be stepping in for an injured Jussier Formiga on short notice to take on Pettis in front of his home crowd. Moraga has more power, better wrestling, boxing and is stronger than Pettis. However, Pettis is the superior athlete who excels in every facet of the sport. He is excellent on the feet and has many tools in his striking arsenal, so I see him mixing things up and getting the better of Moraga. I think his defensive wrestling is good enough to keep this fight standing for the majority of three rounds en route to picking up a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. Should Moraga find himself in top position on the mat, I think Pettis will be active enough from bottom position to stifle him and potentially secure a submission off his back. I think Pettis should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite heading into this contest, so I like him at his current offering price of -135.

Gabe’s Call: Pettis by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Lightweight bout: Tony Martin (-280) vs. Alex White (+240)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Martin is the far better mixed martial artist heading into this 155-pound scrap, and I see his advantages in size and grappling as being his keys to victory in this contest. He is the stronger fighter of the two, so I expect him to close the distance and score a takedown early. From there, it should only be a matter of time until he locks up something to force a tap from White, who is a featherweight stepping up a weight class on short notice as a late injury replacement for Erik Koch. I think Martin should be at least a 4-to-1 betting favorite heading into this affair, so I like him for a play at the current price.

Gabe’s Call: Martin by Submission (rear-naked choke, 2:53 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Parlays: 1) Pettis (-135) and Martin (-280) at +136 for 3.6u to win 4.9u

and 2) Moraga/Pettis Over 2.5 rounds (-230) and Martin/White Under 1.5 rounds (+170) at +287 for 1.95u to win 5.6u

All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated.


Click Here to Make a Donation!

Share